Being approximately right (not precisely wrong!)

Spurious precision One of the big accounting firms got my goat this week when it released house price growth forecasts by capital city out until the end of the year 2021, predicted to one decimal place. Even if you could predict the future of housing markets beyond a decimal point… full article

Small samples & the hot hand fallacy

Extreme outcomes In his ground-breaking book¬†Thinking Fast and Slow¬†psychologist Daniel Kahneman invited the reader to consider why some small, rural, Republican towns in America's South, West, and Midwest might've recorded the highest rates of kidney cancer (perhaps due to the clean-living rural lifestyle, lack of pollution, and access to fresh… full article